Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 January 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 JAN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE ARE TEN NUMBERED REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK AND ALL REMAIN STABLE. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8842 (S17W10) AND 8843 (N14E14).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8831 (S17W62) OR 8837 (S08W91).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED HAS AVERAGED AROUND 380 KM/S. THE BZ COMPONENT CONTINUED NEGATIVE (SOUTHWARD) UNTIL 23/0217Z WHEN IT TOOK A SHARP POSITIVE (NORTHWARD) DIRECTION.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 24 JAN to 26 JAN
Class M40%30%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 JAN 141
  Predicted   24 JAN-26 JAN  135/135/130
  90 Day Mean        23 JAN 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JAN  011/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JAN  020/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JAN-26 JAN  010/015-005/007-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 JAN to 26 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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