Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 February 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 FEB 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 24/0111Z. THERE ARE SOME TENTATIVE INDICATIONS THAT THIS EVENT ORIGINATED FROM NEW REGION 8889 NEAR N19E67. THIS REGION IS A MODERATE SIZE D CLASS GROUP BUT FORESHORTENING MAY BE MASKING ITS TRUE SIZE. A TOTAL OF THREE OTHER REGIONS IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE BECAME VISIBLE BUT, AT THIS TIME, NONE APPEARED LARGE OR COMPLEX. THERE MAY BE ONE OR MORE REGIONS STILL BEHIND THE EAST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM NEAR EAST LIMB REGIONS IS A POSSIBILITY. ONCE THESE LONGITUDES BECOME VISIBLE, A BETTER ASSESSMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT QUIET LEVELS AND WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AFTER 24/0300Z. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY INCREASED TO SLIGHTLY OVER 800 KM/S AND DENSITY DECLINED TO LOW LEVELS INDICATING THE EARTH IS IMMERSED IN THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST CORONAL HOLE STREAM. THE SOURCE HOLE ON THE SUN IS SLIGHTLY MORE ELONGATED THAN LAST SOLAR ROTATION.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR 25-26 FEB. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING ARE LIKELY DURING THAT PERIOD. THIS CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO EBB ON 27 FEB WHEN QUIET TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED TO HIGH LEVELS ON 25 FEB.
III. Event Probabilities 25 FEB to 27 FEB
Class M75%75%75%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 FEB 192
  Predicted   25 FEB-27 FEB  195/197/200
  90 Day Mean        24 FEB 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 FEB  008/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 FEB  024/023
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 FEB-27 FEB  025/020-018/018-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 FEB to 27 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%50%30%
Minor storm35%25%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%50%30%
Minor storm40%25%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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