Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 May 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 02 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8971 (N19W74) PRODUCED AN M2/1N X-RAY EVENT AT 02/1451Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED 250 SFU TENFLARE. OTHERWISE, ONLY SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY LOW WITH THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8970 (S13W78) OR 8971.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE SOLAR WIND WAS OBSERVED WHEN A TRANSIENT PASSED THE ACE SPACECRAFT AT APRROXIMATELY 02/1040Z. THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY INCREASED FROM AROUND 600 TO MOMENTARILY OVER 900 KM/SEC. ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRED SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED SLOWLY SUBSIDED AND LEVELED OFF AROUND 600 KM/SEC DURING THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH MINOR STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD; THEN BECOMING MORE QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 03 MAY to 05 MAY
Class M35%30%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 MAY 153
  Predicted   03 MAY-05 MAY  150/145/145
  90 Day Mean        02 MAY 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 MAY  012/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 MAY  014/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 MAY-05 MAY  015/020-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 MAY to 05 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm25%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%40%35%
Minor storm30%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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