Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 May 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 03 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT 03/0043Z. SOME MODERATE GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 8981 (S22E03) AS THE REGION GREW FROM 5 TO 10 SPOTS SINCE YESTERDAY. AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE OCCURRED ON THE SOUTHWEST LIMB FROM REGION 8970 (S14W92) AT APPROXIMATELY 03/0030Z. NEW REGION 8982 (S20E19) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8970 OR 8971 (N18W85) AS EACH REGION PASSES OVER THE WEST LIMB.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS. MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED FOR ONE PERIOD FROM 03/1500-1800Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS FOR A SHORT TIME DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
III. Event Probabilities 04 MAY to 06 MAY
Class M30%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 MAY 137
  Predicted   04 MAY-06 MAY  135/130/130
  90 Day Mean        03 MAY 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAY  013/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAY  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAY-06 MAY  010/012-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 MAY to 06 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%40%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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