Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 May 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 04 MAY 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8970 (S14W105), FROM
BEHIND THE SOUTHWEST LIMB, PRODUCED AN M6 X-RAY EVENT AT 04/1108Z
WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. EARLIER, AT 03/2310Z, REGION 8970
PRODUCED AN M1 X-RAY EVENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOOP PROMINENCE
SYSTEM. SOME DECAY WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 8980 (S15W08), WHILE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE SEEN IN REGION 8981 (S22W10). NEW REGION
8983 (N25E58) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS ENHANCED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 05 MAY to 07 MAY
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 MAY 135 Predicted 05 MAY-07 MAY 130/130/135 90 Day Mean 04 MAY 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAY 013/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAY 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAY-07 MAY 010/010-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 MAY to 07 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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