Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 May 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 09 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8989 (N17E13) ENTERED A GROWTH PHASE DURING THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPED MIXED MAGNETIC FIELDS THAT MAY INCLUDE A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION. THIS REGION PRODUCED NUMEROUS C-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST WAS A C9/SN FLARE AT 09/1740Z. SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED FROM OTHER SMALL REGIONS. EARLY IN THE PERIOD, ANOTHER LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION BECAME VISIBLE IN THE LASCO CORONAGRAPH DATA. THIS SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EVENT APPEARS TO HAVE ORIGINATED FROM YET ANOTHER FILAMENT ERUPTION IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SUN. A MODERATE SIZE H TYPE SPOT ROTATED ONTO THE DISK AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8992 (N09E73).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8989 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SMALL M-CLASS EVENTS. CONTINUED GROWTH HERE COULD RESULT IN THE DISSOLUTION OF SEVERAL NEARBY FILAMENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL MIDDAY ON 11 MAY WHEN A FILAMENT ERUPTION RELATED STORM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED FROM THAT TIME THROUGH 13 MAY. ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DISTURBANCE.
III. Event Probabilities 10 MAY to 12 MAY
Class M45%45%45%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 MAY 150
  Predicted   10 MAY-12 MAY  158/162/165
  90 Day Mean        09 MAY 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 MAY  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 MAY  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 MAY-12 MAY  007/008-018/015-030/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 MAY to 12 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%30%
Minor storm05%25%30%
Major-severe storm01%10%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%30%25%
Minor storm05%30%40%
Major-severe storm01%10%15%

All times in UTC

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