Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 May 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 10 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE EVENT OF THE PERIOD BEGAN WITH THE ERUPTION OF A 5 DEGREE FILAMENT FROM N14E16. IT WAS SOON FOLLOWED BY A LONG-DURATION 2N/C8 FLARE FROM REGION 8990 (N14E20) AT 10/1941Z AS WELL AS TYPE II (680 KM/S) AND TYPE IV RADIO SWEEPS. NEW REGION 8993 (S23W06) WAS NUMBERED TODAY, CORRECTING AN EARLIER ERROR. THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS IT WAS INCORRECTLY REFERRED TO AS REGION 8986, WHICH HAD ACTUALLY DISSIPATED. REGION 8994 (N11W01) WAS ALSO NUMBERED. TODAY'S PENTICTON 10CM FLUX VALUE WAS LIKELY FLARE ENHANCED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8989 (N16W01), 8990 (N14E20), AND 8991 (N15E46) ARE ALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE ONSET OF A GEOMAGNETIC STORM IS EXPECTED LATE 11 MAY TO EARLY 12 MAY DUE TO A FILAMENT ERUPTION AND PARTIAL HALO CME OBSERVED ON 8 MAY. ALTHOUGH, AT THIS POINT, THERE IS NO INDICATION OF AN APPROACHING SHOCK IN THE ACE DATA. EFFECTS OF A RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE WILL EXTEND THE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS THROUGH 13 MAY.
III. Event Probabilities 11 MAY to 13 MAY
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 MAY 179
  Predicted   11 MAY-13 MAY  165/170/175
  90 Day Mean        10 MAY 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAY  007/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAY  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAY-13 MAY  015/015-030/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 MAY to 13 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%30%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm25%40%35%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%

All times in UTC

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