Viewing archive of Friday, 18 August 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 18 AUG 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD
WAS A C5/1F LONG DURATION FLARE AT 18/0445Z FROM REGION 9127
(S37W67). A CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED FOLLOWING THIS FLARE.
REGION 9125 (N26W36), EXHIBITING A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION, IS THE MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK, BUT
OTHER THAN A VERY IMPULSIVE C1/SF FLARE AT 18/1810Z, THIS REGION WAS
QUIET. REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY STABLE OR IN DECAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 19 AUG to 21 AUG
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 AUG 170 Predicted 19 AUG-21 AUG 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 18 AUG 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 AUG 009/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 AUG 005/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 AUG-21 AUG 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 AUG to 21 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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