SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 9166 (S13E71) PRODUCED AN M1 X-RAY FLARE AT 14/0627Z. LIMB PROXIMITY IS INHIBITING A THOROUGH ANALYSIS OF THIS REGION, BUT FREQUENT SURGING AND POINT BRIGHTENINGS SUGGEST A MODERATELY COMPLEX REGION ROTATING INTO VIEW. REGION 9165 (N13E13) DEVELOPED RAPIDLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. FROM A SIMPLE SMALL THREE SPOT BETA CONFIGURATION YESTERDAY, THIS REGION EVOLVED INTO A BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP WITH OVER 20 SPOTS COVERING NEARLY 300 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED IN THIS REGION. SLIGHT GROWTH WAS ALSO NOTED IN REGIONS 9156 (S26W53), AND 9162 (S32W63).

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH THE EMERGENCE OF REGION 9165, AND NEW REGION 9166. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE >10 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN AT 12/1555Z IS STILL IN PROGRESS. A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 321 PFU OCCURRED AT 13/0340Z. THE EVENT HAS BEEN IN SLOW DECAY SINCE THE MAXIMUM AND IS CURRENTLY AT 18 PFU. THE PCA THAT BEGAN NEAR 12/1830Z, ENDED AT 14/1532Z.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO SOON EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS. A CME ASSOCIATED WITH THE 12 SEP, M1/2N FLARE WILL LIKELY IMPACT EARLY ON DAY ONE. STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF DAY ONE AND RETURN TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BY DAYS TWO AND THREE. THE >10 MEV PROTON EVENT SHOULD END ON DAY ONE, ALTHOUGH AN ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE EXPECTED CME.

  Observed       14 SEP 151
  Predicted   15 SEP-17 SEP  155/160/170
  90 Day Mean        14 SEP 177

OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 SEP  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 SEP  010/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 SEP-17 SEP  050/045-015/012-008/012