SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9165 (N14E01) WAS THE MOST PRODUCTIVE SUNSPOT GROUP PRODUCING AN M2/SF AT 15/0532 UTC, AN M2/1N AT 15/1437 UTC, AND SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO GROW IN SUNSPOT AREA AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION 9166 (S14E62) IS THE OTHER DISK AREA OF NOTE AND IS A COMPACT D-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP. SO FAR 9166 HAS ONLY PRODUCED LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. ADDITIONAL M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY IN REGION 9165 AND C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGION 9166. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A SHOCK IN THE SOLAR WIND WAS DETECTED BY THE NASA ACE SPACECRAFT AT ABOUT 15/0400 UTC. THE SHOCK HAD A MODERATELY STRONG INCREASE IN DENSITY BUT ONLY SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN REDIAL SPEED AND TOTAL IMF. BZ WAS STRONGLY POSITIVE FOR SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWING THE SHOCK PASSAGE AND HAS JUST TURN SOUTHWARD AT ABOUT 15/1900 UTC. EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SHOCK IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CME AND ERUPTIVE FILAMENT ON SEPTEMBER 12. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT CONTINUES IN PROGRESS. THE CURRENT FLUX (2130 UTC) IS ABOUT 10 PFU AND IS SLOWLY DROPPING.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS AS THE CME STRUCTURE PASSES THE EARTH. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT IS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

  Observed       15 SEP 159
  Predicted   16 SEP-18 SEP  165/170/175
  90 Day Mean        15 SEP 177

OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 SEP  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 SEP  010/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 SEP-18 SEP  010/015-010/010-010/010