SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C2 X-RAY BURST OCCURRED AT 13/1434Z. NEW REGIONS 9164 (S15W13), AND 9165 (N12E30) WERE NUMBERED TODAY. NEW SPOTS RE-EMERGED IN REGIONS 9156 (S27W40) AND 9158 (N31W08). A NEW ACTIVE REGION IS ROTATING ON THE EAST LIMB.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LOW LEVELS. OCCASIONAL LOW C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRED EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BUT MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS PERSISTED SINCE 13/0600Z. THE >10 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN AT 12/1555Z IS STILL IN PROGRESS. A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 321 PFU OCCURRED AT 13/0340Z. THE EVENT HAS BEEN IN SLOW DECAY SINCE THE MAXIMUM AND IS CURRENTLY AT 93 PFU. THE >100 MEV ENHANCEMENT NEVER REACHED EVENT THRESHOLD AND IS ALSO SLOWLY RETURNING TO BACKGROUND. THE PCA THAT BEGAN NEAR 12/1830Z REMAINS IN PROGRESS. PEAK ABSORPTION OBSERVED AT THULE, GREENLAND WAS 4.6DB AT 13/0603Z. CURRENT ABSORPTION IS APPROXIMATELY 3DB.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH EARLY DAY ONE. STORMING IN RESPONSE TO THE CME OBSERVED ON 12 SEP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF DAY ONE AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAY TWO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO UNSETTLED BY DAY THREE. THE >10 MEV PROTON EVENT IS EXPECTED TO END ON DAY ONE.

  Observed       13 SEP 133
  Predicted   14 SEP-16 SEP  130/135/135
  90 Day Mean        13 SEP 178

OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 SEP  011/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 SEP  010/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 SEP-16 SEP  040/045-040/040-015/015