Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 September 2000

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 30 SEP 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. IT IS BELIEVED REGION 9178 (S23E40) PRODUCED A SLOW RISE, LONG DURATION M1 X-RAY EVENT THAT REACHED MAXIMUM AT 30/1827Z. A SECOND M1 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT 30/2016Z WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. REGIONS 9173 (S11W02) AND 9178 PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN REGIONS 9173, 9176 (S09E31), AND 9178. REGION 9176 NOW HAS A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION WITH APPROXIMATELY 24 SPOTS. NEW REGION 9179 (N34E07) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 9173, 9176 (S09E31), AND 9178 EACH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN M-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE OF UNKNOWN ORIGIN BEGAN AROUND 30/0400Z. MAJOR STORM LEVELS WERE OBSERVED IN THE HIGH LATITUDES FROM APPROXIMATELY 30/0800 - 1200Z. THE MID LATITUDES OBSERVED MINOR STORM CONDITIONS DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RETURN TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST DAY, BECOMING MORE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

III. Event Probabilities 01 OCT to 03 OCT

Class M	60%	50%	50%
Class X	10%	10%	10%
Proton	05%	05%	05%
PCAF	GREEN

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       30 SEP 194
  Predicted   01 OCT-03 OCT  185/180/175
  90 Day Mean        30 SEP 182

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 SEP  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 SEP  025/032
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 OCT-03 OCT  012/015-010/012-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 OCT to 03 OCT

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	30%	20%	20%
Minor storm	10%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	35%	25%	25%
Minor storm	15%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	05%	01%	01%

VII. COMMENTS EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE. THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS. ONLY THE CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT. FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEBSITE AT SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML

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