Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Today's largest event was a
C1.7 at 07/0641Z which was not observed optically. Region 9178
(S20W59) was fairly active today with occasional brightenings, but
appears to have decreased. Region 9176 (S08W66) was quiet all day,
but has shown slow growth.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with one period of unsettled
conditions observed at the higher latitudes. The solar wind speed
continued to decline today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled over the next 36 hours. An
increase to active levels is expected to begin late on the second
day and continuing through the 3rd day due to a high-speed coronal
hole wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 156 Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 150/145/140 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 005/010-012/015-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
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