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Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 October 2000

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Today's largest event was a C1.7 at 07/0641Z which was not observed optically. Region 9178 (S20W59) was fairly active today with occasional brightenings, but appears to have decreased. Region 9176 (S08W66) was quiet all day, but has shown slow growth.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with one period of unsettled conditions observed at the higher latitudes. The solar wind speed continued to decline today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled over the next 36 hours. An increase to active levels is expected to begin late on the second day and continuing through the 3rd day due to a high-speed coronal hole wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Oct 156
  Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct  150/145/140
  90 Day Mean        07 Oct 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Oct  006/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  005/010-012/015-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%40%
Minor storm10%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%35%40%
Minor storm10%20%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk, Surgut, Syktyvkar
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (501.3 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-68nT)

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