Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Friday, 3 November 2000

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only several minor C-class events were observed during the period from Regions 9210 (S27W30) and 9212 (N09W08). Slight growth occurred in Regions 9212 and 9218 (N19E12). No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to increase during the first day of the period to active conditions, due to the arrival of the full halo CME observed on 1 November. Minor to major storm levels are possible in the higher latitudes. Active conditions are expected to decrease by late on the second day and become predominantly quiet to unsettled by the end of the period.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov

Class M	50%	50%	50%
Class X	10%	10%	10%
Proton	05%	05%	05%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       03 Nov 199
  Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov  200/195/190
  90 Day Mean        03 Nov 173

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  001/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  020/020-015/015-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	40%	30%	20%
Minor storm	15%	15%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	45%	40%	25%
Minor storm	20%	20%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	01%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 21:40 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Luleå, Umeå

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (14.93nT), the direction is North (4.89nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-132nT)

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