Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 November 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity became moderate. Region 9213 (N02W64) produced an M1/1f flare with minor centimetric bursts at 07/1207Z and a C3/Sf flare at 07/0347Z. This region is a moderately sized "H" type spot in white light, but appears slightly more complex in today's magnetograms. Minor C-class flaring was also observed on the west limb near Region 9210 (S26W80) and near what appears to be a developing region near N15W85. New regions 9224 (N28W61) and 9225 (S19W16) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate through day one, but low during days two and three as active longitudes rotate around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels at mid latitudes with mostly active to major storm levels at high latitudes. This disturbance is associated with the 3 Nov CME that was first detected at the ACE spacecraft at 06/0915Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. The minor to major geomagnetic storm, experienced over the past two days appears almost over.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Nov 180
  Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov  180/175/170
  90 Day Mean        07 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  028/042
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Nov  030/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  010/020-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%20%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%25%25%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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