Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 November 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity decreased to low levels. Isolated
C-class flares occurred, the largest of which was a C5/1b at 15/0246
UTC from Region 9223 (S14W61). The visible regions were mostly
stable with no significant growth or decay noted. New Region 9234
(N20E22) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There is a fair chance for isolated M-class
activity during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to decline to
normal to moderate levels during the latter half of the forecast
period.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 147 Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 150/155/155 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 004/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 007/015-007/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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