Viewing archive of Friday, 26 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 9325
(N10E50) produced an M1/1b flare at 26/0607 UTC associated with a
Type II radio sweep. This region was simply structured and showed no
significant changes during the period. Region 9313 (S07W40) produced
isolated B- and C-class subflares and showed no significant changes
in size or structure. Region 9320 (S25W61), a small A-type group,
produced a C1/Sf flare at 26/1206 UTC associated with a Type II
radio sweep, but was otherwise stable. New Region 9326 (N27W27) was
numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
However, there will be a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare
sometime during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels during most of the
period. However, an isolated active period occurred during 26/0700 -
0900 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at mostly quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 166 Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 26 Jan 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 007/007-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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