Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 January 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels. Isolated, low-level C-class subflares occurred. Minor spot growth was reported in Regions 9321 (S05W10) and 9325 (N11E37). The remaining regions were simply-structured and stable including newly numbered Region 9327 (N17E47).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Jan 167
  Predicted   28 Jan-30 Jan  165/165/160
  90 Day Mean        27 Jan 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Jan  005/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  007/004-007/004-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Vorkuta

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Kuopio
Arkhangelsk, Norilsk

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk, Syktyvkar
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.71nT), the direction is slightly South (-8.21nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-78nT)

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