Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9455 (S18W11) produced two M-class flares early in the period. The first was an M3/1b at 12/2335 UTC with an associated 230 SFU Tenflare and Type IV radio sweep. The second was an M3/Sn at 13/0304 UTC associated with a 220 SFU Tenflare and Type II and IV radio sweeps. Coronal mass ejections followed both flares, but the bulk of the mass appeared to be directed southward. Region 9455 remained a moderate-sized sunspot group with a mix of polarities evident within its interior spots. Region 9454 (N12E32) remained the largest spot on the disk at around 400 millionths, but was relatively inactive. It showed a weak mixing of polarities in the vicinity of its trailer spots. Minor spot development was noted within Region 9451 (S22W39), which produced an isolated subflare late in the period. New Region 9457 (S19E03) was numbered.

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels with a fair chance for isolated M-class flares from Region 9455. There is also a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9454.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. Active to minor storm levels occurred until 13/0600 UTC, followed by mostly unsettled conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may reach high levels during the period.

  Observed       13 May 139
  Predicted   14 May-16 May  145/150/160
  90 Day Mean        13 May 167

  Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  020/034
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 May  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  015/015-015/012-015/020