Viewing archive of Monday, 14 May 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Activity decreased to low levels. Region 9455 (S17W24) remained the most active of the visible regions. It produced isolated C-class subflares, the largest of which was a C5/Sf at 14/0324 UTC. No significant changes occurred within this region, but mixed polarities persisted within its intermediate spots. Some polarity mixing was also observed in the vicinity of the leading spots of Region 9454 (N12E18), which was relatively inactive during the period. The remaining spot groups were unremarkable, including newly numbered Regions 9458 (S11W45), 9459 (N26W09), and 9460 (S24E60).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels with a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9455. There will also be a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9454.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels until approximately 14/0900 UTC, then decreased to quiet to unsettled levels for the rest of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit increased to high levels during the latter half of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the period with a chance for active levels at high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels during the first half of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 May 138
  Predicted   15 May-17 May  145/150/155
  90 Day Mean        14 May 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  017/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 May  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  012/015-012/020-007/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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