Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 June 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Frequent C-class flares were observed. Region 9494 (S08W57) produced most of the activity including the largest event of the period - a C9/Sf at 10/0104Z. This region developed more size and complexity during the last 24 hours, with a weak delta configuration becoming obvious by mid-period. Slow growth was also observed in Region 9489 (N18W17) which produced isolated C-class flares in a beta-gamma configuration. Minor C-class flares were also observed in Region 9487 (N21W30) and Region 9493 (N06E25). New regions 9497 (S10E27) and 9498 (N22E58) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9494 has a good chance of producing an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. These disturbed conditions are a result of a high speed stream that is now tapering off.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are likely at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Jun 163
  Predicted   11 Jun-13 Jun  170/170/170
  90 Day Mean        10 Jun 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun  019/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Jun  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  012/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%25%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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