Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 June 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity was high. Region 9511 (N10E13) became
extremely active during the period, producing several C-class
events, three M-class events, and an impulsive X1/1b flare at
23/0408 UTC. Although still a relatively small region, 9511 has
quickly developed into a 22-spot Dao group with a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic classification. Region 9503 (N16W61) was also active during
the period, producing several optical subflares and an M6/1n event
at 22/2222 UTC. Three new regions were numbered: 9514 (N12E54), 9515
(S06E46), and 9516 (N12E70).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Several regions have the potential to produce minor
M-class events and Region 9411 could continue to produce isolated M
and X-class events. EIT imagery shows a potentially active region
beginning to rotate onto the disk in the northeast quadrant.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux may again reach high levels during the forecast
period.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 206 Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 205/200/200 90 Day Mean 23 Jun 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 003/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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