Viewing archive of Friday, 20 July 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9546 (S16E04) produced today's only C-class event, a C1/Sf at 19/2345 UTC. Region 9542 (S22E08) showed some growth today, and is currently the largest region on the disk, but was stable. Region 9548 (N17E25) also showed some emerging flux, but could only muster one Sf flare. Two filaments disappeared during the past 24 hours, one in the northeast near N13E15, and the other in the northwest near N36W16.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event sometime during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes attained high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled during the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jul 143
  Predicted   21 Jul-23 Jul  145/145/145
  90 Day Mean        20 Jul 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jul  010/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul  010/011-010/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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Active geomagnetic conditions

Observed Kp: 4
Threshold reached: 20:32 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Kuopio
Bergen, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Vorkuta
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11.12nT), the direction is slightly South (-6.89nT).

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