Viewing archive of Friday, 27 July 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 9543
(S25W82) produced an isolated C-class subflare. This region remained
moderate-sized with a slight degree of magnetic complexity as it
began to cross the west limb. The remaining regions were
unremarkable. New Region 9559 (S25E14) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels late in the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to decrease to
normal to moderate levels early in the period.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jul 121 Predicted 28 Jul-30 Jul 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 27 Jul 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 008/008-008/008-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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