Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 August 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 9591
(S17E53) produced frequent, impulsive mid-level C-class flares with
minor radio emission. This region showed a magnetic delta structure
in its trailing sunspots and a weak delta in its interior spots.
Currently, Region 9591 spans about 30 degrees in longitude. However,
it appeared likely this region was comprised of two abutted sunspot
groups, which may be split into separate groups once this complex
rotates further into view. Minor polarity mixing was evident in
Regions 9582 (N28W33) and 9585 (N14W16), but both regions were
inactive as they showed signs of decay. The remaining active regions
were unremarkable. New Region 9593 (N00E01) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a good chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 9591. There is also a slight chance for a major flare from
this region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity decreased to quiet to unsettled levels as
coronal hole effects subsided.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first half of
the period increasing to unsettled to active levels during the rest
of the period. There will be a slight chance for a proton event
during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the first half of
the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 170 Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 175/180/180 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 010/010-012/012-015/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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