Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 August 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Solar activity has been high. Region 9591 (S19E32)
produced several M-class flares and an X5/3b event at 25/1645 UTC.
The event had an associated 8100 sfu tenflare and a Type II and Type
IV radio sweep. SOHO/LASCO images observed a well defined coronal
mass ejection with this event. This region continues to develop and
retains a large Fki beta-gamma-delta configuration. Region 9596
(N23E79) was numbered today. The observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux
for today may also be slightly enhanced as a result of the earlier
event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high with Region 9591 producing M-class flares and a
chance for another major flare from this region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active through the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 26 August due to possible
coronal hole affects. Active to minor storm conditions are expected
for 27 and 28 August as a result of the X-class event at 25/1645
UTC. A greater than 10 MeV proton event is also possible on 26
August from the activity today.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 75% | 75% | 50% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Aug 199 Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 190/195/200 90 Day Mean 25 Aug 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 015/015-035/035-030/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 20% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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