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Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 August 2001

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 9591 (S19E32) produced several M-class flares and an X5/3b event at 25/1645 UTC. The event had an associated 8100 sfu tenflare and a Type II and Type IV radio sweep. SOHO/LASCO images observed a well defined coronal mass ejection with this event. This region continues to develop and retains a large Fki beta-gamma-delta configuration. Region 9596 (N23E79) was numbered today. The observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux for today may also be slightly enhanced as a result of the earlier event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high with Region 9591 producing M-class flares and a chance for another major flare from this region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active through the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for 26 August due to possible coronal hole affects. Active to minor storm conditions are expected for 27 and 28 August as a result of the X-class event at 25/1645 UTC. A greater than 10 MeV proton event is also possible on 26 August from the activity today.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
Class M75%75%75%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton75%75%50%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Aug 199
  Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug  190/195/200
  90 Day Mean        25 Aug 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Aug  008/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  015/015-035/035-030/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%40%35%
Minor storm05%30%20%
Major-severe storm01%20%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%45%40%
Minor storm10%35%25%
Major-severe storm05%20%15%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk, Surgut, Syktyvkar
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (501.3 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-68nT)

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