Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Monday, 27 August 2001

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. An M1 flare was observed at 27/0638 UTC. The LASCO images indicate the event was possibly from new Region 9601 (N10E85). Region 9591 (S18E07) remains strong and continues its beta-gamma-delta configuration. Four new regions were numbered today as regions 9598 (S18W75), 9599 (S18E65), 9600 (N17E82), and 9601.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9591 is capable of producing M-class events with an isolated major flare possible.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. A shock passed the ACE spacecraft at 27/1920 UTC and created a sudden impulse of 37 nt at the Earth at 27/1952 UTC.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to active to minor storm conditions on 28 August as a result of the X5 event on 25 August. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 29 August with quiet to unsettled conditions returning on 30 August.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug

Class M	75%	75%	75%
Class X	20%	20%	20%
Proton	20%	20%	20%
PCAF	yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       27 Aug 192
  Predicted   28 Aug-30 Aug  195/200/200
  90 Day Mean        27 Aug 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug  009/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Aug  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug  030/030-015/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	35%	25%	20%
Minor storm	20%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	10%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	40%	30%	25%
Minor storm	25%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	15%	05%	01%

All times in UTC

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