Viewing archive of Monday, 1 October 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was high today. A long-duration M9 flare occurred at 01/0515 UTC in the vicinity of Region 9628 (S22W91). This flare produced a full halo CME from LASCO imagery as well as a proton injection. Multiple discrete frequency radio emissions were associated with the event. EIT imagery depicted an excellent view of prominent loop structure that lasted through the X-ray enhancement. Region 9628 is currently exiting the visible disk. Four new region's were assigned today, Region's 9643 (S26W26), 9644 (N20W04), 9645 (S18E03), and 9646 (N12E42). All were at least of Beta class magnetic complexity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high levels. Isolated M-class flares are probable. The is also a chance for a major flare from Region 9632 (S21W73) as it begins to exit the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to major storm levels due to a CME passage. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 01/0255 UTC and continued at time of issue. At the close of period the greater than 10 MeV flux was at 462 pfu and increasing. This proton event was in response to the M9 flare mentioned above.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next two days due to CME effects. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on the final day of forecast. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through most of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
Class M75%75%70%
Class X20%20%10%
Proton15%15%05%
PCAFIn Progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Oct 217
  Predicted   02 Oct-04 Oct  210/205/205
  90 Day Mean        01 Oct 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  015/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Oct  035/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  020/020-030/030-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%35%40%
Minor storm25%40%20%
Major-severe storm20%25%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%40%
Minor storm35%35%25%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%

All times in UTC

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