Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 October 2001

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low with Region 9632 rotating beyond the west limb today. Region 9648 (S05E64) produced the largest flare during the period, a C8/SF at 02/0101 UTC. Region 9636 (N13W56) produced C6/SF occurring at 03/0643 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 558 km/s. A C-class flare was recorded coming from Region 9645 (S18W27) and an optical flare was also seen coming from Region 9634 (N11W63). Two new regions were numbered today, 9649 (S06E70) and 9650 (S12E72).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is forecast to be moderate. Region 9636 is capable of producing M-class flares. Old Region 9608 is returning on the southeast limb. It has a history of producing M-class activity as well.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. A CME passage resulting from the M9 flare and associated activity on the southwest limb early on the 1st is suspected of being the source. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux peaked at 02/0810 UTC, 2360 pfu. Flux levels remained above event level at time of bulletin issue.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels during the first day as CME effects subside. Quiet to unsettled conditions should prevail on the last two days of period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end during day one of the forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct

Class M	75%	50%	50%
Class X	10%	10%	10%
Proton	99%	75%	25%
PCAF	Yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       03 Oct 192
  Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct  195/210/210
  90 Day Mean        03 Oct 179

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  024/043
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Oct  035/055
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  015/020-010/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	45%	15%	15%
Minor storm	40%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	40%	25%	15%
Minor storm	50%	10%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	01%	01%

All times in UTC

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The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (504.1 km/sec.)
The density of the solar wind is moderate (26.27 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11nT), the direction is North (5.34nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-66nT)

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