Viewing archive of Monday, 8 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Only a couple of
minor C-class flares occurred during the period. The most
significant event of the day was an optically uncorrelated C4 flare
at 08/0819 UTC. A Type II radio sweep with a shock speed of 581
km/s accompanied this flare. New Region 9657 (N23E70) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Isolated M-class events are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods between 08/1200 and 1800 UTC. High speed stream
effects are believed to be responsible for the slightly elevated
field levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods due
to high speed stream effects for the first day of the period. The
long duration C2/Sf flare and filament eruption on 06/1713 UTC
likely had an associated coronal mass ejection that may create
active periods on days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 171 Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 165/170/170 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 001/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 015/015-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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