Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 October 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9658 (S15W35) produced an M1/Sf flare at 17/1116 UTC and also increased in area and magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma. Region 9661 (N16W08) produced two minor C-class flares. This region remains the largest on the disc and maintains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 9669 (N13E42) has increased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration. New Region 9671 (N15E32) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels with the potential for an isolated high condition. Region 9661 is rotating into geoeffective position and has the potential to produce a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, barring the occurrence of an earth-directed CME.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Oct 217
  Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct  220/220/225
  90 Day Mean        17 Oct 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Oct  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  008/012-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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