Viewing archive of Monday, 29 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate to high. Several
M-class events occurred during the period. Region 9682 (N12E18)
produced the largest of these with an M3/1f at 29/1113 UTC. The
event had an associated Type II radio sweep with a speed of 609
km/s. This region has grown in both area and sunspot count since
yesterday and retains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is also a possibility of a major flare from
Region 9682.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 216 Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 210/205/200 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 201
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 034/041 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 010/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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