Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 January 2002

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9754 (S07W68) generated the largest flare of the day, producing an M2/1n flare at 02/1252 UTC. This region grew in magnetic complexity during the period and exhibits a much tighter spot cluster than was seen yesterday in white light. Regions 9764 (N14W50) and 9751 (N04W89) also contributed to today's activity producing small C-class flares. Region 9767 (S23E36) has been relatively quiescent through the period producing a lone optical Sf flare. A decrease in area was seen in spot coverage during the period, although magnetic structure remained unchanged in Region 9767. New Regions 9769 (S19W33), 9770 (N08W29), and 9771 (S20E17) were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 30/0245 UTC reached a maximum flux of 108 pfu at 31/1620 UTC. This event has been on a very slow decrease since max and is at 33 pfu at the time of this writing.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end late on day two of the forecast.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan

Class M	75%	75%	75%
Class X	15%	15%	15%
Proton	99%	99%	10%
PCAF	in progress

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       02 Jan 231
  Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan  230/230/225
  90 Day Mean        02 Jan 220

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jan  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  005/008-006/008-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	05%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	20%	20%	20%
Minor storm	10%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

All times in UTC

Previous rotation Previous day Calendar

Next day Next rotation

<< Go to daily overview page

The density of the solar wind is moderate (21.71 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11.01nT), the direction is North (6.33nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-79nT)

Latest news

Tuesday, 15 April 2025

CME arrival, G3 storm watch

Friday, 28 March 2025

X1.1 solar flare

Monday, 24 March 2025

Coronal hole faces Earth

More news

Latest forum messages

2025/04/12-13 Filament CMEs 2025/04/16 G3 Watch 464 Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1742 Filaments and prominences 66 Power Grid Reclosers 1 AR4062 36

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

Donate SpaceWeatherLive Pro