Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 January 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9754
(S07W68) generated the largest flare of the day, producing an M2/1n
flare at 02/1252 UTC. This region grew in magnetic complexity
during the period and exhibits a much tighter spot cluster than was
seen yesterday in white light. Regions 9764 (N14W50) and 9751
(N04W89) also contributed to today's activity producing small
C-class flares. Region 9767 (S23E36) has been relatively quiescent
through the period producing a lone optical Sf flare. A decrease in
area was seen in spot coverage during the period, although magnetic
structure remained unchanged in Region 9767. New Regions 9769
(S19W33), 9770 (N08W29), and 9771 (S20E17) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 30/0245 UTC reached a
maximum flux of 108 pfu at 31/1620 UTC. This event has been on a
very slow decrease since max and is at 33 pfu at the time of this
writing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than
10 MeV proton event is expected to end late on day two of the
forecast.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 10% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jan 231 Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 230/230/225 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 220
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 005/008-006/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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