Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9809 (S06E16) produced two M-class flares during the period. The largest was an M2 x-ray flare at 04/0602 UTC, an M1 followed shortly thereafter, at 04/0658 UTC. Both of these flares were optically correlated using SOHO/EIT and Culgoora Solar Observatory data. Region 9802 (S14W44) produced a C7/Sf flare at 04/1909 UTC along with several other smaller C-class flares throughout the period. This region also grew in penumbral coverage since yesterday and is an Fki beta-gamma-delta complex. Region 9800 (N10W73) has continued to decay as it nears the west limb. Numerous minor and significant Type III radio sweeps were observed today. Newly numbered Region 9816 (S13W33) is showing rapid growth in spot areal coverage and produced a Sf flare at 04/0438 UTC.

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9802 may yet produce an isolated major flare before exiting the west limb.

The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.

The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one of the forecast. Active conditions may be expected due to the effects of a large transequatorial coronal hole for days two and three of the forecast. Additionally, a slight chance of isolated minor storm levels could occur at higher latitudes.

  Observed       04 Feb 235
  Predicted   05 Feb-07 Feb  230/225/215
  90 Day Mean        04 Feb 225

  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Feb  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  005/005-010/015-014/020