Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 February 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. Region 9825 (N13W90)
continued to be the region of primary concern as it rotated around
the NW limb. The three M-class flares this period all appear to have
originated from this region. The largest was an M3 at 21/1226Z. A
prominence erupted from this area at 21/0608Z, followed by a large
filament eruption at around 21/1100Z. Region 9335 (S09W75) grew
rather quickly this period and produced some small flares as it
approaches the west limb. New Regions 9838 (N05W18), 9839 (S16E06),
and 9840 (S12E72), were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate to high levels. We may continue to experience activity
from behind the NW limb for the next day or so. Region 9835 has
potential to produce M-class activity with a small chance for a
major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
protons at geosynchronous orbit remain elevated following the small
proton event that began and ended between 20/0730 - 0800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels through day one.
Active conditions are expected on day two due to an expected CME
passage associated with the M5/1n flare that occurred on 20/0612Z.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to return by day three.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| Class M | 70% | 65% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Feb 201 Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 205/200/200 90 Day Mean 21 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 010/015-015/020-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 50% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 35% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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