Viewing archive of Friday, 22 February 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9830 (S19W34) produced an M4/2n at 22/0010Z with minor centimetric bursts. This region continues to slowly decay, but maintains moderate magnetic complexity with a weak delta configuration. The vigorous activity noted on the NW limb over the past few days is waning now, but is the likely source of the C5 X-ray flare at 22/0630Z. Region 9835 (S08W87) appeared to develop some complexity over the past 36 hours and is quite active as it rotates around the west limb. New Regions 9841 (S21W20), 9842 (S18E03), and 9843 (S26E58), were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Though in decay, Region 9830 still has potential to produce C and M-class flares with the slight chance of a major flare. Isolated C-class flares may continue from active regions near the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Active periods are possible on day one due to the expected CME passage associated with the M5/1n flare that occurred on 20/0612Z.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
Class M60%55%50%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Feb 192
  Predicted   23 Feb-25 Feb  190/190/185
  90 Day Mean        22 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Feb  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  015/020-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%10%
Minor storm25%15%05%
Major-severe storm20%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%35%20%
Minor storm30%20%10%
Major-severe storm20%10%05%

All times in UTC

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