Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 February 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period was a C4/Sf at 23/0630Z from developing Region 9841 (S20W33). Region 9830 (S19W49) continues to be the largest and the most active region on the visible disk, and produced several minor C-class flares. This region has been in slow decay over the past few days; however, new flux emergence was noted today and a weak delta configuration still exists. Minor C-class activity was also observed in Region 9839 (S18W20). New Regions 9844 (N22E33), and 9845 (N15E71) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9830 is capable of producing isolated M-class flares with the slight chance of a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods early in the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. The minor geomagnetic disturbance expected today following the 20 Feb CME, has not yet materialized. It is unlikely that we will see any impact from this CME.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
Class M60%55%50%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Feb 188
  Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb  190/185/185
  90 Day Mean        23 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Feb  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  010/015-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%15%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%20%20%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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