Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 February 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 9830 (S17W64) produced
several C-class events, the largest being a C7/Sf at 23/2250Z, and a
C9/Sf flare at 24/2031Z. This region continues to be the largest and
most active region on the visible disk and still maintains a delta
configuration. Region 9844 (N22E18), a relatively small D type
group, developed some complexity and produced occasional C-class
flares, the largest being a C5/Sf at 24/2052Z. Region 9841 (S20W47)
produced a C4/Sf at 24/1447Z, with a Type II sweep (800km/s). New
flux emergence and occasional subflares were observed in Regions
9839 (S17W35), and 9842 (S19W23). New Regions 9846 (S04W37), and
9847 (S14E50) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9830 still maintains good potential for an
M-class flare with an isolated chance of a major flare. Regions
9839, 9842, and 9844 will likely produce occasional C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with very isolated unsettled
periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet levels with occasional
unsettled periods.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 193 Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 190/185/180 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 007/005-007/005-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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