Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 January 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. C-class flares continued, the
largest being a C6/Sf at 26/2228 UTC in Region 9788 (N17W70). Region
9787 (S08W48) also produced C-class activity during the past day.
Region 9800 (N07E35) continued to grow but did not generate any
flares. New Region 9803 (S24W47) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class activity should continue and there is a small
chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was enhanced from an event beyond the northwest limb,
reaching a peak of 9 pfu at 27/1710 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is not expected to exceed event thresholds.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jan 248 Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 250/255/260 90 Day Mean 27 Jan 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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