Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 April 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9899
(N18E33) produced an M2/2b flare at 09/0042 UTC with an associated
Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 552
km/s. The CME activity associated with this event did not appear to
be earth-directed in SOHO/LASCO imagery. This region continues to
show slow growth in magnetic complexity, evidenced by the addition of
satellite spots and penumbral development. An M1 x-ray flare
occurred at 09/1302 UTC that went optically uncorrelated. Region
9893 (N19W00) was again, quiescent today, showing no significant
activity or appreciable changes from yesterday. However, the delta
magnetic spot in this region remains intact. Region 9887 (N04W82)
didn't produce any optically correlated flare activity today
although an eruptive prominence on the leading edge of region
occurred at 09/0720 UTC. This region appears to be in decay as it
exits the disk. New region 9904 (S16W07) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than
10 MeV electron flux remains slightly elevated, although well below
event threshold.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be predominantly at quiet levels through the forecast
period. A slight chance of isolated active periods exists late on
day three of the forecast period, due to the possibility of some
flanking shock effects from the CME mentioned in IA.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Apr 205
Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 200/195/185
90 Day Mean 09 Apr 203
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 004/005-004/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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