Viewing archive of Monday, 3 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Several weak, impulsive
C-class events were scattered throughout the period. Region 9973
(S16W03) is still relatively large in spot count and areal coverage,
but appears to be losing some magnetic complexity and has been
mostly quiescent through the period. Region 9978 (S20E21) has
increased somewhat in size and spot count, and along with Region
9979 (S28E36), is trending toward greater magnetic complexity. Most
other active regions on the visible disk remain little changed. New
Region 9984 (N19E13) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the forecast period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled, with an
isolated high-latitude active period observed during 02/2100-2400
UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly unsettled, with some active and isolated minor
storm periods possible for the first day of the forecast period.
Thereafter, conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 170 Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 170/165/165 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 014/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 020/020-012/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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