Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 June 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate, due to the occurrence of an M-class event late in the period. Region 9979 (S30E50) produced an M1.1 x-ray flare, which peaked at 02/2044 UTC. The optical enhancement remained in progress at the end of the period, but preliminary reports suggest a 1f intensity. This event also produced a moderate tenflare (530 sfu) and a Type-II radio sweep (estimated velocity 1079 km/s). Several C-class events also occurred throughout the day: Region 9977 (S20W54) produced a C8/Sf event at 02/1015 UTC with associated Type-II (estimated velocity 323 km/s) and Type-IV radio sweeps. Region 9973 (S17E10) produced an impulsive C9/Sf at 02/1147 UTC. A long duration C3.2 x-ray enhancement peaked at 02/0050 UTC, but lacked correlating optical activity reports. Three new regions came into view on the east limb and were numbered today: 9981 (S22E70), 9982 (S03E74), and 9983 (N24E72).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to persist at low to moderate levels for the next three days. A small chance for an isolated major flare also exists for the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quite to active levels. A rising trend in solar wind speed and fluctuating IMF, in possible association with a weak coronal hole close to geoeffective longitudes on the sun, caused predominantly unsettled and isolated active periods throughout the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels for the next two days. Some combined effects from the numerous solar events of the past 48 hours are anticipated during this period. Conditions are expected to be mainly unsettled by the end of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jun 175
  Predicted   03 Jun-05 Jun  170/170/165
  90 Day Mean        02 Jun 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jun  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  015/015-020/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%25%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%35%25%
Minor storm10%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%

All times in UTC

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