Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 June 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Two impulsive M-class events occurred during the period. The first was an M1/1n flare from Region 9973 (S17E23) at 01/0357 UTC. This event was accompanied by a moderate tenflare (260 sfu), and Type II/IV radio sweeps (with estimated sweep velocity = 493 km/s). Region 9973 retains its large size and moderate magnetic complexity though also appears relatively stable. Today's second event was an M1/Sf flare from Region 9979 (S30E63), which occurred at 01/1049 UTC. This region is exhibiting moderate magnetic complexity as it rotates into better view on the visible disk. Newly numbered Region 9980 (S29E08) emerged on the disk today as a small and simply structured spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to persist at low to moderate levels for the next three days. A chance for an isolated major flare exists for Regions 9973 and 9979.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with some isolated unsettled periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain mainly quiet to unsettled for most of the forecast period. There is a chance for isolated active conditions by the end of the period, which may result from the solar activity reported yesterday or from today's M1/1n event (described in section 1A above).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Jun 179
  Predicted   02 Jun-04 Jun  175/170/170
  90 Day Mean        01 Jun 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 May  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Jun  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun  005/008-008/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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