Viewing archive of Friday, 28 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 8
(S10W56) produced a C1/Sf flare as it continued to slowly decay.
This region may have been the source for a partial-halo coronal mass
ejection (CME) off the southwest limb late yesterday. Region 11
(S11W19) also continued to gradually decay. Minor spot growth was
noted in Region 17 (S19E02) and there appeared to be a minor mix of
polarities within its trailer spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity remained at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first half of
the period. Mostly unsettled levels are expected during the latter
half of the period in response to yesterday's partial halo CME.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jun 137 Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 28 Jun 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 003/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 004/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 007/008-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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