Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Isolated
B-class X-ray flares occurred, most of which were optically
uncorrelated. Minor decay was observed in Region 8 (S12W41), which
was the source for a B-class X-ray flare late in the period. Region
5 (N12W72) was also the source for an isolated B-class subflare. It
remained simply-structured as it approached the west limb. Region 11
(S11W05) showed minor decay and remained a simple bipole. The
remaining active regions were stable and simply-structured. New
Region 17 (S19E14) emerged during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Isolated C-class flares are possible from
Regions 8 and 11.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity remained at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jun 139 Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 27 Jun 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 004/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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