Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. The largest flare of the
past day was an M1 at 06/0342 UTC. Although no optical flare reports
were received, SOHO EIT data suggests that the source was Region 17
from just behind the southwest solar limb. Region 19 (S17W21)
produced a C6/1N flare at 06/0938 UTC. This sunspot group appears to
have diminished slightly in complexity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 19 remains capable of C-class activity. An
isolated M-class flare in this region is also possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. ACE satellite data
confirms that a high-speed coronal hole stream is responsible for
the activity.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active as the coronal hole disturbance
continues.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jul 134 Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 132/132/130 90 Day Mean 06 Jul 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 009/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 015/015-015/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 60% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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