Viewing archive of Monday, 15 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 30
(N18W00) produced an X3/3b flare at 15/2008UTC associated with a
1900 sfu Tenflare, a Type IV radio sweep, and a magnetic crochet
(based on Boulder USGS magnetometer data). This region also produced
frequent C-class flares including a C9/Sf at 15/1155 UTC associated
with a Type II radio sweep. Region 30 showed significant growth in
its trailer spots during the past few days including the formation
of multiple magnetic delta configurations. The remaining active
regions were unremarkable. New Regions 35 (S09E63) and 36 (S07E76)
were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 30 is likely to produce isolated M-class flares.
Region 30 could also produce another major flare during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to quiet to active levels on 16 July due to
recurrent coronal hole effects. Activity may increase to active to
minor storm levels on 17 July following today's X-flare. A greater
than 10 MeV proton event is expected to begin early on 16 July, also
due to today's X-flare.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 50% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 160 Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 160/165/170 90 Day Mean 15 Jul 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 001/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 012/012-020/020-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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