Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 September 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several C-class subflares
occurred, mostly in Regions 95 (N08W17) and 96 (S16W02). An
interesting eruptive filament near Region 102 (N08E26) was
associated with a C5 x-ray flare at 05/1706 UTC and a type II radio
sweep.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class activity is possible in Regions 95 and 96. A
general increase in activity levels is expected towards the end of
the three-day forecast period with the return of old Region 69 (S08,
L=299) which departed the disk as an active Ekc sunspot group.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 175 Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 180/190/200 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 023/042 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 008/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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