Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 October 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Several C-class events occurred with most from Region 137 (S18E08). This region continues to grow in areal coverage and spot count. A new region was numbered today as Region 139 (N14E72).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. A chance for an isolated M-class event exists from Region 134 (N13W29) and Region 137.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to sever storm conditions. The disturbance in the solar wind from yesterday continued and sustained several hours of a southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels through the first day of the forecast period. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Oct 136
  Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct  140/145/150
  90 Day Mean        02 Oct 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  030/060
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Oct  035/045
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  015/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%20%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%25%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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