Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours
due to an M1/Sf at 0320 UTC from Region 162 (N25W72). The group
produced additional subflares throughout the day including a C9/Sf
at 1633 UTC. The penumbral area that contained the delta
configuration yesterday appears to be breaking up today. Region 173
(S18W82), which emerged yesterday, continued to develop and produced
numerous subflares during the latter half of the day. New Region 175
(N15E57) was assigned today and produced a C8/Sf at 1530 UTC. New
regions 174 (S25E55) and 176 (N13E75) were also assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. There continues to be a slight chance for major flare
activity from Region 162.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled during the
past 24 hours. There was an isolated active period from 0900-1200
UTC. The high speed coronal hole solar wind stream showed signs of
decline throughout the day and nominal solar wind plasma parameters
were observed by forecast issue time. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 162 Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 010/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 012/012-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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